No V-shaped rebound appears  Economists worry that the global economy will shrink "disastrously"

Jun 24 - 2020


  Bloomberg economists believe that the new crown pneumonia epidemic has caused the global economy to shrink sharply, lowering the forecast to a regression of 4.7%, and believe that the global economy will not return to the pre-epidemic level until the end of 2021.

  Comprehensive media reported on June 23 that Bloomberg Economics economists lowered their 2020 global GDP forecast from a 4% fall to 4.7%, arguing that economic contraction is the "catastrophic" result of the epidemic. . With the lifting of the epidemic blockade measures, global economic output will sharply improve in the third quarter.

  They also expect that US GDP will shrink by 6.5% in 2020, more than double the decline during the financial crisis.

  Economists said that due to the destruction of the labor market and the slowdown of economic activity, the global output will not return to the high level before the epidemic until the second quarter of 2021.

  Economists’ latest forecasts show that the chaotic response to the epidemic has almost broken investors’ expectations of a V-shaped rebound in the economy. Achieving rapid economic recovery requires decisive and rapid stimulus measures, containment of the virus in the second quarter and simultaneous lifting of the blockade.

  Economists said that many major economies failed to meet these three conditions and affected the rest of the world into a long-term recession.

  Bloomberg Economics expects that a "gradual" economic recovery will replace the V-shaped trend. Until vaccines can alleviate consumer concerns, economic activity and the labor market will rebound significantly.

  Economists said that the revised forecast is to some extent a "best scenario", and the more pessimistic situation is that global GDP is expected to decline by 6.7% in 2020 and will not return to the epidemic until the end of 2021. level.

  In addition, the World Trade Organization's updated version of "Global Trade Data and Outlook" reported on the 23rd that in the first quarter of 2020, global trade in goods fell by 3% year-on-year, and the expected decline in the second quarter is about 18.5%.